This week, NFL models were 3-1 ATS last week. That’s 68.8% for all games. This is a great sign, because statistical models are catching opportunities that haven’t existed in recent weeks. Recurring trends like bias and DVOA are aligned with this pattern. Refreshingly, some games this week are also underrated, which means that the underdog can cover the spread and win a game.
The NFL Playoffs are over. The top two favorites failed to cover the spread and two of them lost very badly. It’s not likely that we’ll see any double-digit spreads in Week 12. However, nine games will have double-digit spreads, including three of the top four teams. It’s a roller-coaster ride in Vegas. But, there are a few things to keep in mind before you make your NFL Spread Picks.
After a long period of time, NFL odds have began to settle. There are only a few weeks left in the NFL season. This year has seen a number of high-profile releases. The NFL standings and the NFL playoff picture make now a terrific time to bet on games. There are still a few weeks to go before you can place a wager on the playoffs. As a final check, you can tune in to see if the odds are correct. Finally, check to see how your picks fared from last week.
The first step in creating a profitable NFL Spread Picks strategy is to learn the spreads. The NFL spreads are posted as a whole number, but they’re typically reset to fractions or decimals for all games. A ten-point spread is considered a push, and you should be able to pick the correct team. Likewise, a 10-point spread is the same as a 10-point spread, so it makes sense to look at the total and not the point total.
Another key to success in NFL Spread Picks is determining the point spread. A three-point favorite, for example, will be different than a 3.5-point favourite. If a team is 3.5 points better than a 3.5-point underdog, it will be a push. In the worst case scenario, a three-point favorite will cover the spread. A 7.5-point favorite will be a sure bet.
The Atlanta Falcons are a popular pick. Despite their recent success, the Falcons are a one-point favorite this week, but betting action has pushed their point spread to a two-point underdog. In fact, the Atlanta Falcons are a three-point favorite this week. If they had won against Seattle, they’d be in a stronger position to cover the spread. The Dallas Cowboys, meanwhile, are a 10-point favorite, and will cover the spread on Saturday.
A 3-point spread is a 3.5-point spread. It’s a big difference between a 3-point favorite and a 3.5-point underdog. Even if a team is a one-point underdog, a seven-point underdog is likely to win by more than three points. And a three-point underdog has a higher point spread than a seven-point underdog.
This week’s NFC North division game features a tough matchup between the Vikings and Green Bay Packers. While the Vikings have a good defense, the Packers have won twice as many games as the Vikings. Aaron Rodger will be ready to throw the ball in a high-scoring game. The Cardinals’ offense is a strong team that has the talent to win a game against a spread.